"Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team is calling for yet another unusually active season with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes."
"Once again, an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2025, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team said in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 3. Led by Phil Klotzbach, with coauthors Michael Bell and Levi Silvers, the CSU team called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, of 155 (26% above average). That’s higher than the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123. Last year, there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an ACE of 162. Over the past decade, only two Atlantic seasons have ended up with ACE significantly below the 1991-2020 average: 2022 and 2015.
The CSU outlook predicted higher odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. than usual: 51% (long-term average: 43%). It gave a 26% chance for a major hurricane to hit the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 21%), and a 33% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 27%). The Caribbean was forecast to have a 56% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 47%).
The CSU forecast uses a statistical model honed from more than 40 years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, plus dynamical model output from four groups: ECMWF (European model), UKMET, Japan Meteorological Agency, and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)."
Jeff Masters reports for Yale Climate Connections April 3, 2025.
Advertisement 
