"Track uncertainties will complicate the forecast for both systems."
"Two potentially impactful tropical cyclones, both of which could reach land areas as hurricanes over the next several days, were roiling the waters on Thursday west of Mexico and east of the Leeward Islands: Hurricane Norma in the eastern Pacific and Tropical Storm Tammy in the Atlantic. ...
Hurricane Norma rocketed from tropical storm to category 4 strength from Wednesday to Thursday morning as it moved gradually closer to the southernmost Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Norma’s peak winds jumped from 70 to 130 mph between 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday and Thursday, which was almost twice the National Hurricane Center’s criterion for rapid intensification (30 knots or 35 mph in 24 hours). This burst of strengthening was well predicted by the center as well as by the new HAFS intensity model, while the excellent European and UKMET long-range operational models largely missed the boat — a good reminder that track models like the Euro, UKMET, and GFS should not be taken as gospel when it comes to intensity. ...
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are up for much of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and a Hurricane Watch is up for Guadeloupe, as Tropical Storm Tammy gathers strength in the record-warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. Tammy is expected to be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane when it passes near or over the Leeward Islands Friday night through Saturday night."
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson report for Yale Climate Connections October 19, 2023.
SEE ALSO:
"Hurricanes Are Now Twice As Likely To Zip From Minor To Whopper Than Decades Ago, Study Says" (AP)
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